As promised, I'm going to spend an excessive amount of time talking about HD-DvD vs Blue Ray today.
First off a primer for my less tech-savvy readers...
These are the next generation of optical disk technology. Think of it as DvD on steroids. They both hold more information that standard DvD's and both allow for a more "powerful" movie experience with greater details, sharper picture & even better digitalized sound. They both do it and they aren't compatible with one-another. The tired analogy everyone is using is still the best description I can give; It's VHS vs BetaMax for the new age.
For a long time, it looked like HD DvD was the front-runner. But just like John McCain in the Republican Primaries, Sony's Blue Ray has taken the world by storm with most of the major studios siding with Blue-ray. Recent announcements from fom Blockbuster, Netflix & BestBuy has, according to everyone, sealed the deal. (If I hear one more "nail in the coffin" line, I'll smack someone!)
Is it time to buy?
Unless you're a tech-junky don't do anything yet. First off, this "new" format is still growing into the market. Secondly, you've got to have all the other toys to make it worth-while. Do you have a HDTV? Do you have a kick-ass stereo? Are your components new enough to have HDMI connectors? Do you watch enough movies to make the minimum $400 price-tag cost-effective? Are you the type of person who really appreciates improved picture & sound?
And what about me? I'm not interested yet. If I were still a console gamer, I would admittedly consider the Sony PlayStation3 with it's suddenly very appealing built-in Blue-ray player. I'm not, so I won't.
The impact of the "new" online market...
The other player in this game that gets lots of attention from the trolls online are the direct download companies: Netflix, Apple, Amazon, Vongos to name a few. The two emerging power-houses, Netflix & Apple are the real mystery guests at the table. How will they disrupt the adoption of Blue-ray? Well, obviously Netflix is in the best position to win since they do it all. But the question still remains, why do people need Blue-ray if they can download movies? Cable companies have on-demand and AppleTV will let me rent HD movies.
I've been pondering this one for a while. Every time I read a tech blog or forum there's always one wishful troll who says that direct downloads will kill optical disks. Guess what, they are wrong. We're going to have a both-and market for a long time to come. Here's why.
The next generation of high-speed internet hasn't reached enough homes yet. Households aren't adopting newer computers and incorporating them into their entertainment centers fast enough. With due respect to Apple & Slingbox, there aren't truly affordable set-top boxes out there that I can buy my niece to put in her room. An optical-disk based delivery system is going to be with us for a long while. Families don't have computers in every room hooked to every TV. They don't have portable movie hard drives for their cars.
Again Apple, with it's AppleTV & Video iPod line-up is close to getting it, but they are the only ones and they aren't cheap.
The Elephant in the Room...
The big elephant in the room is neither disk nor the internet, it's the economy. DvD players are amazingly affordable. I bought my mother-in-law a really nice DvD player for Christmas for under $70. It wasn't a cheap PoS from Walmart either. It was a highly rated Phillips that included progressive scan, HDMI output, the works. Spending $600 on new Blue-ray players and $30-50 for Blue-ray disks isn't going to happen in my household. Spending similar money to get an AppleTV box is also not going to happen. I'm not getting locked into one company like that. The leap from VHS to DvD was huge. Convincing millions of consumers that the leap from DvD to Blue-ray is just as good will be even more challenging if people are tightening the grip on their wallets.
So, when will I buy one?
I expect that the first Blue-ray player in this household will come in one of two scenarios: A computer replacement with Blue-ray built in or as a "free" upgrade OR A major market saturation that causes prices to become "reasonable." When might that be? Who knows anymore! The tech market changes so fast. It could be Christmas. It could be a few years from now. I could skip it for the next big thing.
Parting Shots...
The "end" of the format war is good for the consumer. More companies will get on board and start building Blue-ray players and producing Blue-ray movies. Sony will improve the design. Costs will come down. Real consumer options will appear. Blue-ray drives will become "standard" computer equipment. Then I'll buy. Until then, I'll stick with my DvD's.
If you happen to take the plunge, let me know. I come over. I may even bring popcorn!
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